Kentucky Derby contender Grand Mo The First gets a shower from a hose after a workout Thursday at Churchill Downs. Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, prediction: Which horse will win?

Originally posted on Action Network | By Avery Yang | Last updated 5/2/24

One of the best predictive indicators as to which horse may win the 2024 Kentucky Derby is how it did in its last race before the Run for the Roses.

The last 19 of 26 winners — including nine of the last 12 — have raced the final three furlongs (3/8 of a mile) in 38 seconds or faster in that preliminary race.

Each of the horses set to compete in the 2024 Kentucky Derby has ran its prep race already. And one of the biggest favorites in the race failed to meet this criteria: Sierra Leone, whose odds as of Thursday afternoon are second-best at 5-1.

Hat tip to this data courtesy of BloodHorse.

Curiously, the horses with the two fastest times are among the longest underdogs at +6000 (Domestic Product) and +5100 (Endlessly).

Both those times require caveats, though, according to BloodHorse.

Domestic Product's race was shorter than typical, making it easier for horses to finish with faster times. In addition, the starting quarters of the race were slow, meaning Domestic Product was able to conserve its energy for a last minute push to the finish line.

Endlessly's preliminary race, meanwhile, was conducted on Tapeta, not dirt, which is the longtime surface of the Kentucky Derby. Endlessly has never raced on dirt over his stake-winning career.

The favorite for the race fits in comfortably under 38 seconds with Fierceness (+180) at :36.91. His time was more impressive given his fast start, while the other horses on the list ran far slower starting paces to save their energy for a quickburst final 3/8 of a mile.

Sierra Leone just missed the sub-:38 mark with a :38.02 performance at the Blue Grass Stakes.

In history, the horses listed in the aforementioned chart are the ones that tend to finish first in horse racing's preeminent race. But it's not foolproof. Seven horses over the last 26 years have bucked this trend in order to win — including last year's race, where eventual winner Mage ran a :38.17 in his final three furlongs before the Kentucky Derby.

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